We are bullish on Crude from next 2 years perspective and let us accept very few friends agree with us :-(. We know that China is concentrating on increasing domestic consumption and Chinese demand for commodity is down but we think US will be growth engine of world economy for next 2-3 years and crude can NOT remain at current levels when world's No.1 economy is powering ahead. Plus Crude goes up in Geo Political situation.
Best proxy to play Crude in Indian Equity is through Cairn India. So, We attach our monthly chart of Cairn India (CMP 335).Will cairn start upward journey in days to come?
Disc: No holding in Cairn India in personal/firm at time of writing. Clients hold and they may buy/sell/trade in future.
Posts
8 comments:
have you heard about shale gas. do you know us dependency on imported oil is coming down and is expected to halve by 2025. Fuel efficiency of cars will go up and by 2030 they will consume only 6 mm barrel oil compared to 9 million for transportation. Things are not as simple as you say. If you are chartist than stick to your charts and being a chartist myself i can bet that there is no bullishness on crude.
Anonymous,
I am small time Technical Analyst, do NOT take my view seriously. You could be right on crude :-).
Shale gas could become next big thing but I personally believe before any alternative energy source becomes usable Crude must see big bubble from any reason.
Anonymous,
No need to be so critical. Everybody is entitled to have their view just like you believe there is no bullishness on crude.
By the way, shale gas is not environment friendly. Do you know if there is any opposition to using shale gas as a substitue fuel? Ideally I think that a substitue to crude should be in renewable form.
Roberto
Anonymous,
When Jigs says something with conviction then there is a lot of thought process behind it:-).Dont be surprised if crude turns from 80$ towards 110-160++ in the next few weeks itself:-)).
Anonymous
Feel free to express your views. However, pls do so nicely.
You talk as if the rest of the world has confirmed that shale gas is the next best thing and that production of shale gas is in full flow.
Unlike many analysts who try to crystal gaze 5 years into the future, Jigs usually keeps a much more realistic 2-3 year view.
I have done my research and i can categorically say that the time taken to scale the production to a shale gas to levels that would reduce our dependency on oil is definitely more than 2-3 years.
Hi Jake Peters,
This is useful information on shale gas. Do you know of any renenwable form of energy on which investors are highgly positive about, apart from Solar & Wind power?
Roberto
Dear All,
Thanks for your positive critism. I am not bearish on Cairn India per say but I am not bullish on Crude oil. Number the author in his article the author has stated that "We know that China is concentrating on increasing domestic consumption and Chinese demand for commodity is down but we think US will be growth engine of world economy for next 2-3 years and crude can NOT remain at current levels when world's No.1 economy is powering ahead. Plus Crude goes up in Geo Political situation.
Best proxy to play Crude in Indian Equity is through Cairn India" being a keen observer of macro economics I can say that this is a very loose statement. Things as simple as the author wants you to believe and I am very critical of this. Here are few post which may be useful to the readers.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444549204578020602281237088.html?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-09-27/the-oil-hub-where-traders-are-making-millions#r=read
Anonymous,
I repeat - I am small time analyst please ignore what I said about crude :-).
Please reveal your identity and post your view on crude - fundamental/technical so we all can be benefited.
Post a Comment