All of us are watching market to understand if recent market uptrend is small pullback on the way to down OR start of new uptrend. Personally, We think based on all indicators we track we do not expect sensex above 21000 in 2012. However, Market should give rally of at least 6 months in 2012 and we are closely going to watch if next bottom is higher bottom in Sensex/Nifty which made low of 15135/4531 on 20-Dec-2011. To put it differently, after good run up recently Indian Equity may start correction in next 1-2 weeks and after that correction we will watch turning point. On forming higher bottom ONLY we can say fresh uptrend of 2012 has started. Lets watch.
Our Mathematical Model tells us beaten down sectors which made new highs in 2008 may give 30-40% returns in 2012 if sensex makes higher bottom and continues uptrend from hereon. Fundamentally, We have been expecting 2-wheeler parts, Multiplex, Cement and Export oriented companies to give good results in 2012 but our Mathematical Model is considring very high correction (some are down 90% from 2008 peak) of Infrastructure, Engineering, Capital Goods and Property sectors and suggesting they may give better returns from now onwards. As Reders will recollect we never recommended buy on these sectors till date but now our Model is generating buy. 2-wheeler parts, Multiplex, Cement and Export oriented companies may give good results and steady returns but they may not give returns as high as Infrastructure, Engineering, Capital Goods and Property sectors so one can add a Property stock OR an Engineering stock from reputed promoters if one is already holding a 2-wheeler part stock and a Cement stock in portfolio.
Our Mathematical Model tells us beaten down sectors which made new highs in 2008 may give 30-40% returns in 2012 if sensex makes higher bottom and continues uptrend from hereon. Fundamentally, We have been expecting 2-wheeler parts, Multiplex, Cement and Export oriented companies to give good results in 2012 but our Mathematical Model is considring very high correction (some are down 90% from 2008 peak) of Infrastructure, Engineering, Capital Goods and Property sectors and suggesting they may give better returns from now onwards. As Reders will recollect we never recommended buy on these sectors till date but now our Model is generating buy. 2-wheeler parts, Multiplex, Cement and Export oriented companies may give good results and steady returns but they may not give returns as high as Infrastructure, Engineering, Capital Goods and Property sectors so one can add a Property stock OR an Engineering stock from reputed promoters if one is already holding a 2-wheeler part stock and a Cement stock in portfolio.
Note that we coul be 100% wrong on above view.
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3 comments:
Jigs,
In the Egineering sector, McNally Bharat and Disa look good based on their performance.
In the Property sector, Ansal Housing is declaring good results from the last 3-4 quarters. But promoters don't seem to have fair value in the market.
What are your views on these scrips?
Thanks
Ramchand
Ramchand,
I track 2-3 stocks in each sector and buy/recommend stock purely based on my model's recommendation.
DISA is surely a good bet in Automobile Capex and I track it.In Industrial capex space I track Saraswati Industrial, Shriram EPC and International Combustion and no view on Mcnally. In Property I track Mahindra Life, Godrej Properties and Oberoi Realty no view on Ansal Housing.
I think infrastructure is a GREAT play this year. This sector tends to be defensive in nature - its not like a hot tech stock that could go either way - but they usually provide good dividends and add stability to any portfolio.
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