If we notice we are yet to see CLIs value to start upward trend. Based on history we can expect Sensex/Nifty to reverse down trend AFTER OECD CLIs reverse downtrend first. Lets hope for turn around in next 1-2 months :-).
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
OECD's CLIS for India
We attach long term quarterly chart giving BSE Sensex ( Indian Equity) and OECD's Composite Leading Indicators together. CLIs value is up to latest available Oct 2011 and source data courtsey of OECD.
If we notice we are yet to see CLIs value to start upward trend. Based on history we can expect Sensex/Nifty to reverse down trend AFTER OECD CLIs reverse downtrend first. Lets hope for turn around in next 1-2 months :-).
If we notice we are yet to see CLIs value to start upward trend. Based on history we can expect Sensex/Nifty to reverse down trend AFTER OECD CLIs reverse downtrend first. Lets hope for turn around in next 1-2 months :-).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
10 comments:
I would like to comment about the current condition of the american economy. This is one of the hardest periods in the countries history. Their does not seem to be any consensus about the trends for the economy one week the economic news is good the next week its bad. Their seems to be no consistency what so ever when it comes to economic matters. Mcdonald’s recently hired fifty or sixty thousand people out of one million that applied maybe mcdonald’s should change their saying you deserve a break today at mcdonald’s to you deserve a job today at mcdonald’s. As far as those banksters go I say lets exchange those three piece suits and briefcases for a pick' a shovel' a bucket' and some pinstripes.
What is the link to find out "OECD's CLIS for India "
JIGS your way of analysing market is really different. you always bring fresh way of looking at things. I am tired of listening to all those famous analysts who read something in news paper and speak out next day on tv channel where is originality here? why they are called experts at first place who themselves are lost?
Mitesh (Mumbai)
Mitesh,
Analysts read every global news and make view on market rather than looking at objective data like OECD CLIs :-).I spend lot of time developing model which tells me when to buy and what to buy based on different fundamental and technical parameters for investment in a stock. I guess there are lot of automated tool for trading but nothing for investment so I find it very exciting area to work on.
This is a very good blog to read for those focused on fundamental investing. It gets confusing with so many articles on the Eurozone collapse, oil etc. etc. In the UK and the States there is fear in the air and everyone seems paralyzed. It would also be good if you could post that link as per Richie's comment above, it would be interesting to take a look at.
jigs apart from OECD which other indicators you track? your sector picks every year has been terriffic consistently over last few years which are your picks for 2012? I understand about technical parameters which are your fundamental parameters in stock selection? hope you won't mind so many questions.
Mitesh
Mitesh,
Thanks but 2011 has not been that great year for me and my investors. We did not book profit in some stocks we bought which are back to near or below our buy price :-(. This is one of the reasons I will be relying more on my model which gives me possible BUY and SELL signal.
Apart from OECD CLIs I keep tab on USDINR, spread between long and short term indian g-sec, interest rate trend (PLR), India's M3 money supply data and so on.
On stock selection I am giving more importance to reputation of management while looking at fundamentals than looking at detailed ratios like ROE, ROCE etc.
Dear Jigs,
wish you and your family a very happy, peaceful and prosperous new year.
madhusudhana reddy
Dear Jigs,
I would rate your analysis amongst the very best. The OECD CLI does look like a good guide post to catch long term cycles. I am too hoping for a quick turnaround on that.
Have a great New Year 2012!
Naresh
Hi Jigs!Wish you and your family a very very happy and prosperous new year 2012!!! May you be blessed with all success in your alalytics and stock selection throughout the year!!!
----------Follower
Post a Comment