We wish all our readers a prosperous new year. This samvat year we have decided to talk to our smart friends often than reading Newspapers and watching blue channels :-).
We talked to our genius friend on Diwali and here is summary:
Our friend who correctly predicted big rally in Oct 2011 feels we may see minor correction in risk assets starting from begining of Nov 2011 for about 10-11 days. He says after that 10-11 days correction risk assets will start final upmove up to 3rd/4th week of Nov 2011 where he expects peak of recent uptrend in Dow, Gold, Crude and EM equity like Indian BSE. By 3rd/4th week of Nov 2011, He expects Dow Jones to peak around 12800, Gold at $1800, Crude at $ 100 and BSE to peak around 18500.
He expects all above risk assets to start slow decline like we have seen in last few months and expects final capitulation around Apr 2012 which he says will be starting point for next major bull run in all the above classes. At that point he expects Dow to come around 9000, Gold at $1150, Crude at $65 and BSE Sensex at 14000. Oops.
We personally continue to hold 2 wheeler Tyre and 2 wheeler Part stocks and waiting for results of South based cement and port logistics companies for possible buys.
We talked to our genius friend on Diwali and here is summary:
Our friend who correctly predicted big rally in Oct 2011 feels we may see minor correction in risk assets starting from begining of Nov 2011 for about 10-11 days. He says after that 10-11 days correction risk assets will start final upmove up to 3rd/4th week of Nov 2011 where he expects peak of recent uptrend in Dow, Gold, Crude and EM equity like Indian BSE. By 3rd/4th week of Nov 2011, He expects Dow Jones to peak around 12800, Gold at $1800, Crude at $ 100 and BSE to peak around 18500.
He expects all above risk assets to start slow decline like we have seen in last few months and expects final capitulation around Apr 2012 which he says will be starting point for next major bull run in all the above classes. At that point he expects Dow to come around 9000, Gold at $1150, Crude at $65 and BSE Sensex at 14000. Oops.
We personally continue to hold 2 wheeler Tyre and 2 wheeler Part stocks and waiting for results of South based cement and port logistics companies for possible buys.
Like us our friend could be wrong so do not go by what we have written here :-). Happy new year again.
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2 comments:
Are you still bullish on complex fertilizers ? Coromandel's results have been better than expected, but when compared YoY, its been quite dismal. Do you see a long term uptrend in such stocks or are they pretty much flattening out at this point ?
vedavyas,
I agree result is not terrific YoY but Coromandel remains my only long term pick. Food Inflation has been sticky and will remain so for next few years I guess.
Technically, Stock is near its all time high price of 350 and has remained rock steady when market went down this tells you we may see much bigger rally ahead.
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