There are very few Analysts and Gurus we read/listen SERIOUSLY. Our own definition of Guru is different from others. One such Guru we read seriously is John Taylor. We had posted link of Taylor's interview on Bloomberg on May 12, 2011. He has been accurate in his view -'Dow Jones rally being over' that too just a week after its peak on May 2, 2011 :-). We read Taylor's latest Interview in Barron's.
Taylor uses Computer Models to predict trend. We personally and some of our friends are 'Just Beginners' in that field :-).
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9 comments:
Very interesting interview,especially if he's right about the US easing on the dollar printing from 2012 onwards.
keerthikas,
Yes, But note he predicts Crude at $500 in next 5 years this tells us Dollar may start big decline after few months of ongoing rally. Lot of smart Technical Analysts I know predict Crude above $250 in next 5 years.
Jigs I'm so happy I found your blog.I'm learning,really learning.Thanks for your reply!I think I should read about oil.I've never even looked that way before.
Any chance of some Paul Volcker's early 80s style action in 2012?
keerthikas,
I am also learning every day :-). On Paul Volcker- I guess you are asking if FED can raise rates the way it raised in 1980s. My take - for that to happen we need hyperinflation whereas currently we are experiencing exactly opposite - Deflation. See 30-years US bond yield is around 2.78 against 2008 low of 2.53. This tells us investors are more worried about Deflation in US NOT inflation.
So Jiggs what will a rally in the dollar followed by a decline mean for us in India?Is there some low risk strategy to benefit in this scenario?
keerthikas,
Till date, I have mostly invested in Indian Equity so personally I am not a low risk taker :-). But someone with low risk taking capacity should should put Money in fixed income product. One can also buy Gold as there are lot of Analysts predicting $3000 in Gold in 2012 though I am scared to venture in Gold now. Someone with medium risk apetite I would recommend extremely beaten down Commodity Stocks as an indirect play on Rising Inflation. My favorite beaten down commodity as of now is Cement - Look at Inflation in last 5 years and compare it last 5 years cement prices and you will see Cement has lot of catch up to do. Pick any cement stock as I do not think they will go down even 10-15% from here but has potential to double over next 2 years. My view and I could be wrong.
Thanks Jiggs.Cement it is.I've held ACC for some years and I like the decent dividends.I'll try to buy it at dips.Any cement stocks you see as a particular value buy?
And you're not the only one.I find the gyrations of the precious metals heart stopping these days.
Hi jigs,
Yes. cement price has not increased in line with construction steel price.
I hold Heidelberg cement.
Kushal
I can see that you are putting a lot of time and effort into your blog and detailed articles! I am deeply in love with every single piece of information you post here
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